verde consumer behavior report - november 18, 2020
There’s an old mountain town saying: “If you don’t like the weather, wait 15 minutes.” In other words, change is the only constant. Sound familiar?
Black Friday is under two weeks away, which makes it a good time to check in on updated Holiday 2020 predictions. Online shopping is still the big constant for holiday, but a few changes are worth a look.
Speaking of looking into the future
Keep an eye out for more news around predictive analytics, which determines how to interpret and use collected data. (This article from Biz Tech is a great primer.) It was one of the most searched terms around marketing this past month.
Companies use predictive analytics for pricing, inventory, risk analysis, supply chain management and much more. In the stock market, you better believe it’s an influential tool. Though big retailers have been actively using it for a few years to predict and channel customer behavior, we’re wondering if there may soon be more applications for small and specialty retailers.
It’s an interesting field because while it’s all algorithms and objectivity, the results present like the subjective analysis of the data. The idea is that by identifying patterns in data, predictive analytics can help minimize future uncertainties. So maybe that’s the reason for increased interest. In a year 2020, searching for greater certainty seems like a logical choice.
The Countdown to Black Friday
What is going to happen with Black Friday this year? We know there will be more online activity, but are shoppers waiting for the day after Thanksgiving to scope out deals? Hubspot collected some stats to help make sense of it all for 2020.
Online spending will be up 33% over 2019
75% of all retailers are offering discounts before Black Friday
39% of consumers discover deal and promos via brand emails
42% of all online shopping in 2020 is done via smartphone, which is up 55% and $28 billion over 2019
64% of consumers will not pay for expedited shipping
In 2019, millennials were the biggest spenders on Black Friday, averaging $509.50
Our take: No time like the present to get your email marketing, holiday promotions and e-commerce sites polished and ready to go.
Do small businesses have a chance this year?
We’ve been saying anecdotally that consumers want to support local and specialty businesses partially out of empathy for a tough year. Our assertion is now backed by survey data! According to both data and surveys collected in the Adobe Analytics Holiday Forecast 2020, the holiday forecast for small businesses is strong.
One caveat: Unless otherwise indicated, the data doesn’t determine between online and in-store sales.
38% of consumers will make deliberate efforts to support small businesses this holiday season, presumably due to the outsized stress small businesses have experienced due to COVID
51% of consumers plan to support local, small businesses on Small Business Saturday
Small companies will benefit from a combined COVID-plus-holiday boost to the tune of 107% revenue bump in November and December vs October
Large companies will do better on traditionally big shopping days
Brick and mortar: Shoppers are 9% more likely to shop at stores (of all sizes) that offer BOPIS or curbside pick-up
While average order value is expected to remain flat for small business online sales, new customer revenue (just since April 1, 2020) is expected to jump 65%
Large companies still claim the majority of holiday revenue (55% compared to 8% for small), but the extended holiday season is providing more opportunities for small businesses to earn consumers’ business.
Our take: The objective recognition of consumer loyalty to small and specialty brands is reassuring, as is the generally positive forecast for holiday revenue. Though the biggest long-term takeaways is how online sales are driving small brand’s capacity to scale. Even further, since new consumers are responsible for the increased revenue, it must be recognized they converted to paying customers online.
Yep, WFH=More Work
A recent study conducted by Harvard Business School confirms our suspicions. Our work days are longer and busier. For those who transitioned from an office to working at home:
The work day is 48.5 minutes (8%) longer
5.2% more emails are being sent
Emails sent after business hours have increased 8.3%
Meetings are: shorter (by 12 minutes or 20%); more frequent (13% uptick overall numbers); bigger (14% more people at each meeting)
The researchers are now turning their attention to how these stats affect productivity and morale. So far, Raffaella Sadun sums it up,
“If you have a large house, life is good. If you have to combine your bedroom with your office, it’s not as good.”
If you’re managing your team remotely, the Harvard researchers recommend staying focused on empathy for each employees’ unique reality and to focus on output, not hours. Some people thrive working from home, and some are counting the days until they can return to the office ecosystem.
If you found this report helpful and would like to be notified of future reports and resources from the Verde and Multi-Channel Marketing Academy team, join our newsletter below.